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Saturday, June 5, 2010

The Greek financial crisis: A mini analysis.

I would like to offer my perspective on the Greek financial crisis in a few lines.

Greece’s financial woes have deep causes. For years this country lived beyond its means relying on European subsidies and goodwill. Corruption is rampant and coupled with a bloated public sector you can easily figure out why our economy is neither productive nor competitive. Most weaknesses in our political system are inbred and there is an urgent need for sweeping institutional reform.

We were also very unlucky. Germany’s procrastination (understandable up to a point) was catastrophic for us as it only exacerbated the economic crisis and left Greece begging for a bail-out under very unfavorable terms.

The European dream of political unity is fading and it seems that a monetary union that lacks the drive for a political and economic union will bring upon further instability. Another crucial factor has been the inability of the ECB to enforce fiscal discipline to the debt-ridden countries of the south (plus Ireland).

In this vortex of political and economic problems Greece found itself exposed to speculative attacks as well. Structural weaknesses came to the surface very quickly and so my country reached the brink of the abyss…

Things are very bad and no one can tell what will happen to us during the next years. I am not at all sure whether we will be able to extricate ourselves from this imbroglio. By 2014 the relationship between public debt and GDP will have reached a staggering 149%. As of now it stands at 119%. The only way to save Greece from bankruptcy is to reduce an enormous budget deficit that currently stands at 13.7% to less than 3% in three years! Is that possible? I really can’t tell given the fact that there is no political consensus (the largest Opposition party has voted against the urgent and harsh government measures partly dictated by the EU and the IMF) and no social cohesion (strikes paralyze the country every other day and a recent opinion poll indicated that 61% of Greeks opposed the decision to ask for the EU-IMF package).

Real and lasting change can only take place if all parties and citizens realize the gravity of the situation we are in and come together as ONE! Our Prime Minister, George Papandreou, has a mandate to change things despite the insurmountable obstacles that lie ahead. We have to help him do that for the sake of the country. We are in the midst of the worst, post-war economic crisis. The future of an entire generation is at stake. We all have to work together and let's hope that Papandreou will pull the country through.

I firmly believe that George Papandreou is incorruptible and he must succeed because the alternative scenario would be simply unthinkable! In any case, my point is that we, as Greek people, must also assume our responsibilities and do our best to change our mentality. We must now look ahead.